While Gold was in the midst of one of its strongest runs in years, there was simply a dearth of nearby resistance points to use as a basis for new short positions.
But if there were ever a reason for USD-strength, last week should’ve been the deliverer of those reasons, as the Federal Reserve’s rate hike combined with their expectation for four full hikes in 2016 was enough reason to spark USD-strength across the board. And as has become normal over the past few months, Gold prices fell. But – something funny happened near the lows, and this is what should provide caution to traders moving forward. On the day after FOMC as we approached that previous low that was set right after ECB at $1,046.23, we saw buyers jump in early to set a new, higher-low at $1.047.55. Higher-lows can be an early sign of a top-side reversal, as bears are unable to drive prices to new low and bulls show their eager anticipation by posting buy orders before new lows come into the market. Like any other ‘early’ statistical measure, this could be a noisy signal; but given a lack of discernable drivers over the next week, this could further make the short-side of gold look a little less attractive, at least for now.
However, for traders taking a longer-term approach, sell setups may be around-the-corner. The $1,087.05 level that we’ve been discussing in these tech pieces has continued to show as a critical level in the Gold market. This is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the ‘big picture’ move, taking the 1999 low to the 2011 high. Since coming back into Gold prices in July, this level has offered numerous setups on both sides of the market, and until price action leaves it behind it will likely function as a pertinent level.
Should prices rise to $1,087.05, traders can look for intra-day resistance as highlighted by top-side wicks on the 4-hour chart. With this setup, traders could cast targets towards $1,080, $1,071.28, $1,063, and $1,050 to accommodate attractive risk-reward ratios.
If $1,087.05 is traded though, a secondary zone of long-term resistance may be seen in the $1,100-range. This level had provided a prior swing-low support before the down-side Gold trend really heated up, and this also carries a projected trend-line going into the next few weeks. The same down-side targets would apply.