Gold Market Analysis Update - August 2015
The Gold market was due for a rebound and has been completely oversold! Inflation is subdued as well as the stock market has traded to boot toward the highs using a solid US Dollar. The economic condition isn't right for Gold at this special time, but the real character of Gold as a safe haven calls for stress and panic to boost the demand for Gold. Gold functions as a hedge against inflation. Gold hedges against disagreement and currency devaluations. The International Monetary Fund had reduced its outlook on international economic growth down to 3.3% from the earlier 3.5% which additionally may foster the Gold prospects. Long term there's a considerably different scenario where Gold could have. The Fed increase may not be positive for Gold, however a fall in the stock market would possibly be sufficient to produce a spike in the Gold.
The World Gold Council forecasts the international central bank reserves added about 120 tons of Gold in the first quarter. The international central banks added about 10.7 tons of Gold in April. The US Mint reported their Gold Eagle coin sales to have grown by 57% in June. The sales topped 33,000 oz. last week January thru June, a total of 1.4 metric tons of Gold was bought. The US Mint sales might have sold about 110,000 oz of Gold Eagle (one oz) coins so far this month while June's total was about 76,000 oz. So far they might have sold about 374,000 oz of Gold in the American Gold Eagle coins. The Perth Mint in Australia could have sold of Gold coins in June oz about 21,962.
So the 1,530 tons has been pretty powerful, the privatization of Gold has just opened to the individuals in 2002 Gold jewelry bought in China was up around 5,282 short tons at about $189 billion. The Peoples Bank of China shown their holdings of 53.3 million oz of Gold or 1,658 in June. China has craved to have their money become a prime minister money to compete together with the US Dollar. China has pursued the drawing rights from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for years. China could even be expanding their mining interest. The Commercial Bank and Industrial Bank in China is trying to take part in the London Gold cost fix. Zijin Mining in China is tendering for mine purchases in Australia. As there appears to be an inverse association there the recent lower moves in the Chinese Stock Market can result in increased allotments in the Gold market. Stress and panic trigger Gold interest in the stocks in years previous and any selloffs can give rise to a shift in the allotments. Hong Kong exported about 64.2 short tons of Gold to mainland China in May which is an increase of 36%. Gold was exported by Switzerland to China as well raising the Gold by 24% in May. ., Switzerland may export a total of 2,000 short tons of Gold this year Chinese demand for Gold is down 18% from last year. The Chinese Gold fix could be a boost for the metal that's usually viewed as the stress and panic safehaven merchandise, but now may be the buyers pick commerce. The Chinese love to purchase Gold. China has sought to get Gold is suggested by their investment counsel to consumers as an investment product for years. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) may have lofty plans for the metal that might be the increase that Gold must recover its former safe haven worth. The SGE might want to confirm a yuan-denominated Gold fix cost.
Today's employment report appeared to support a possible rate increase for September for a lot of dealers and analysts! The Employment Report for July was 215,000 while the preceding reading was 223,000. Work raised by 15,000 workers. Occupations raised by 36,000 workers. Healthcare associated occupations rose by 30,000 in July. The typical workweek raised about 6 minutes to 34.6 hours. The longer work week might have led to the wage increase. We still have about 8.3 million individuals out of work in America. July made applicants that just took out of the job hunt. discouraged about 668,000 The Contribution Rate was 62.6% possibly due to baby boomers retiring or discouraged job hunters.
Preceding reading was 237,000., the ADP Employment Report of private industrial sectors for July were at 185,000 while the The ADP Employment Report was below expectations and covers the private industrial sectors. The unemployment rate has remained at 5.3% thereby adding to the favorable employment data. The Fed is remaining with their mandate of inflation and improved employment rising toward the 2% goal. There's the Fed yearly convention in Jackson Hole on August 27th - 29th but US Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen WOn't be attending. The World Bank as well as iMF Managing Director Christine Laggard has requested US Fed Chairperson Yellen to hold off on a rate increase until 2016. The Fed noted that over the past year 2.9 million jobs were created to establish the US increase on class. Fed Chairperson Yellen feels assured that if tightening in a "wise and slow way" it shall be simpler keeping equilibrium in the market.
The Fed doesn't expect a powerful reaction from the possible rate increase maybe in September or December and keeps the economic recovery is on course. The service sector really has been a significant increase for the US market and accounts for about 80% of all of the work. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July was 60.3 while the preceding reading was 56.0. It surpass expectations by a long-shot as increases in business activity, new orders and employment all came in powerful. Any reading over 50 points to growth. This was the greatest reading we've had in about ten years. Warehousing, transport, building and retail commerce all were encouraging while production stays challenged. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index covers forestry, mining, building, agriculture, fishing, hunting and services. The poorer production section may balance.
Another services sector index is the PMI Services Index for July which was 55.7 while the preceding reading was 54.8. This survey encompasses about 400 businesses predicated on new company, employment and company expectancies. Factory Orders for June were 1.8% while the preceding reading had been -1.0%. The long-lasting parts rose 3.4% as of last week. The nondurables parts rose 0.4% for petroleum and compounds. The civilian aircraft orders rose 65% while furniture rose 0.5% and 0.6% for motor vehicles. Stocks rose 0.6% for June. The increased demand for transport equipment was a boost to production. Making reduced spending especially in the energy region on the other side of the United States and was stifled by the powerful US Dollar. Transport gear rose about 9.3% in June. The Motor Vehicle National Sales for July were 14.2 million annualized speed while the preceding reading was 13.6 million. The Entire Vehicle Sales were 17.6 million annualized speed while the preceding reading was 17.2 million. US Vehicle Sales were up 5.3% to 1.51 million vehicles. Producing reports appear to wane the evidence of solid making is automobile sales sectors and our aircraft. Personal Income for June was 0.4% while the preceding reading was 0.5%. Consumer Spending was 0.2% while the preceding reading was 0.9%. US Dollar strength continues to be regarded as the offender for US data that was poor.
The Employment Report for July was 215,000 while the preceding reading was 223,000. The Unemployment Rate was at 5.3% unchanged. Preceding reading was 223,000., the Private Payrolls is at 210,000 while the The Typical Hourly Salary is at 0.2% while the preceding reading was 0.0%. The Typical Workweek is 34.6 hours while the preceding reading was 34.5 hours. Consumer Credit for June was $20.7 billion while the preceding reading was $16.1 billion. The First Jobless Claims was up 3,000 to 270,000 while the preceding reading was 267,000. Continuing Claims was down 14,000 to 2.255 million with a one-week lag time. The Challenger Job-Cut Report for July of announced layoffs was the preceding reading had been 44,842. while 105,696 The Gallup US Payroll to People for July was at 45.5% unchanged. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index for the week of August 2nd was 40.3 while the preceding reading had been 40.5.
The Fed Balance Sheet amount for the week of August 5th was $4.486 trillion while the preceding week was $4.486 trillion. The Whole Assets was $0.9 billion while the preceding weeks was -$15.0 billion. The Reserve Bank Credit was -$9.0 billion while the preceding week's was -$4.5 billion. The Money Supply for the week of July 27th was $12.1 billion while the preceding reading was $18.3 billion. Preceding reading was 237,000., the ADP Employment Report of private industrial sectors for July were at 185,000 while the The MBA Mortgage Applications for the week of July 31st Composite Index was 4.7% while the preceding reading had been 0.8%. The Purchase Index was 3.0% while the preceding reading was -0.1%. The Refinance Index was 6.0% while the preceding reading was 2.0%. International Trade for June was -$43.8 billion while the preceding reading was -$41.9 billion. While the last reading was 32 the Gallup US Job Development Index for July was 32. The PMI Services Index for July was 55.7 while the preceding reading was 54.8. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July was 60.3 while the preceding reading was 56.0. Factory Orders for June were 1.8% while the preceding reading had been -1.0%.
The Gallup US ECI (Economic Confidence Index) for July was -12 while the preceding reading was -8. The Redbook Shop Sales for the week of August 1st was 1.7% while the preceding reading had been 1.0%. The Motor Vehicle National Sales for July were 14.2 million while the preceding reading was 13.6 million. The Entire Vehicle Sales were 17.6 million while the preceding reading was 17.2 million. Personal Income for June was 0.4% while the preceding reading was 0.5%. Consumer Spending was 0.2% while the preceding reading was 0.9%. The PCE Price Index was 0.2% while the preceding reading was 0.3%. Core PCE Price Index was 0.1% while the preceding reading was 0.1%. While the last reading was $90, the Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure averaged $91 in July. The ISM Manufacturing Index for July was 52.7 while the preceding reading was 53.5. The PMI Manufacturing Index for July was 53.8 while the preceding reading was 53.6. Building Spending for June was 0.1% while the preceding reading was 0.8%. Real GDP was 2.3% while the preceding reading was -0.2%. The GDP Price Index 2.0% while the preceding reading was 0.0%.
The safe haven properties of the Gold are ideal for all those times of uncertainty and struggle on the planet! The Gold (December) contract is in a bullish mode if it remains above $1076.50. Although subdued to date the primary catalyst which will support the Gold would be unanticipated inflation. The stimulation in different portions of the world including the Euro Zone is great support for Gold. The rebound may be short lived but seasonally here is the time we begin to try to find the Gold.